NIE Report: Iran Halted Nuclear Weapons Project Years Ago
Posted on December 3, 2007
I hope this intelligence is correct.
The assessment, a National Intelligence Estimate that represents the consensus view of all 16 American spy agencies, states that Tehran’s ultimate intentions about gaining a nuclear weapon remain unclear, but that Iran’s “decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs.â€
“Some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways might — if perceived by Iran’s leaders as credible — prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program,†the estimate states.
The new report comes out just over five years after a deeply flawed N.I.E. concluded that Iraq possessed chemical and biological weapons programs and was determined to restart its nuclear program. The report led to congressional authorization for a military invasion of Iraq, although most of the N.I.E.’s conclusions turned out to be wrong. The estimate does say that Iran’s ultimate goal is still to develop nuclear weapons.
The left, who never trusted our intelligence when it thought Iran were close to having the bomb, suddenly have newfound confidence to cheer! Of course, because underestimating Iran’s progress on a nuclear bomb is a much safer than keeping a cautious and skeptical eye on it. After all, the intelligence on Iraq’s WMDs turned out to be so accurate.
So is there reason to doubt this intelligence? Well, AJ Strata points out several reasons not to swallow it whole.
The NIE is quite clear. We know they stopped, we have no intel on whether they are still stopped or not. The reporting that Iran has stopped as of now is not accurate. Here is the scary part - Iran is still processing fuel! They don’t NEED to process fuel for Nuclear Energy. Russia has offered to SELL THEM fuel if they return the spent fuel so it cannot be used to make weapons. Note this when reading this next finding:
C. We assess centrifuge enrichment is how Iran probably could first produce enough fissile material for a weapon, if it decides to do so. Iran resumed its declared centrifuge enrichment activities in January 2006, despite the continued halt in the nuclear weapons program. Iran made significant progress in 2007 installing centrifuges at Natanz, but we judge with moderate confidence it still faces significant technical problems operating them.
In some ways, we’re back into a similar situation to that we faced in Iraq prior to 2003: We don’t know enough to know what we don’t know about what the Iranians are up to. In the wake of 9-11, that uncertainty led to war. But with the Iraq experience still very much right in front of us and this foggy NIE on the table, it’s unlikely that the vaunted international community will follow us in a tough line now. Of course, much of the international community didn’t follow us then, either.
Am I lamenting this news as a disappointed warmonger? No. I just wish I could trust it to be true and to be dealt with responsibly by our leaders on both sides of the aisle and in the media.
I feel the same way. I hope its true and accurate. I just wish I could trust it with as much confidence as the left suddenly are.
Anyway, here is the administration’s response:
The Bush administration reacted swiftly Monday, arguing that while the latest intelligence report is “positive news,†they won’t abandon their strategy of applying “intensified international pressure†on Iran.
“It confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons,†read a statement by National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley about the NIE report. “It tells us that we have made progress in trying to ensure that this does not happen. But the intelligence also tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a very serious problem.â€
Hadley urged the international community to “turn up the pressure on Iran†using diplomatic isolation, financial pressure, and UN sanctions. President Bush may speak about the new intelligence report findings in a press conference scheduled for Tuesday.
» Filed Under News, War On Terror
Trackback URL
Comments
10 Responses to “NIE Report: Iran Halted Nuclear Weapons Project Years Ago”
Affiliations
The Giants
-
Advertise
Donate
Steal Me
Our Store
Click the design to visit our store and help Stop the ACLU!
More blogs about the ACLU
Politically motivated trash…
So… Iran is developing atomic weapons but the NIE claims they stopped based on what?
Or maybe… they are just stuck.
And what about their bomb-plant in Syria?
If Iran was clean they’d let someone look…
They are enriching, they have no plants that need fuel, they don’t have the techical know-how to clad fuel rods, they have no generators, no transmission lines, so what are they enriching for except nuclear weapons?
But Iran does have Multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles that can carry 3-100 kilo payloads… like nuclear warheads… which they have the plans for courtesy of Pakistan.
Me too. Unfortunately, precious few politicians handled the last such situation properly, so I don’t see how I could possibly trust them again.
I also find how jubilant the left are over this to be disturbing. Suddenly, an absense of evidence is evidence of absense. We are talking about nukes here.
Umm, what else would be “evidence of absense”? If we inspected Iceland, would we find anything besides an “absence of evidence”.
The mindset that “an absence of evidence probably just means they’ve gotten better at hiding the evidence” is a pretty obvious logical fallacy.
d’oh! Would the editing department mind closing that EM tag for me?
We are talking about nukes. I think it is a logical falacy to underestimate Iran’s abilities to hide that evidence.
We are also talking about a potentially devestating and unnecessary war if we overestimate Iran’s abilities to hide that evidence.
All I’m asking for is some caution. Caution, like we didn’t see in the run-up to Iraq. Caution, like we haven’t heard from the hawk candidates.
Iraq is a glaringly example of our fallibility. All I want is a leader who isn’t going to traipse around the globe assuming we’re always right.
After all, the intelligence on Iraq’s WMDs turned out to be so accurate.
I find it greatly amusing that the failure of intelligence that led to war in Iraq, is now a cautionary tale against not going to war with Iran.
Re-read #6 and #7; there’s nothing amusing about any of this.
Failure of intelligence should be a cautionary tale against any first-strike. Do you make a habit of hitting everyone that looks at you funny?!?